Quantum Threat Dispatch

When we last wrote, we highlighted the algorithm that could break ECDSA with fewer than 500,000 physical qubits by the research team out of Google, Ethereum, and Stanford with the details hidden by a zero knowledge proof (ZKP). In particular, we had criticized this as "more marketing than substance" with skepticism about both the efficacy of a ZKP, and the fidelity of the approach more generally. We were right: * Researcher André Schrottenloher trivially bypassed the ZKP by combining existing research....

Two papers hit arXiv this last month that demand your attention. A new resource estimate for breaking 256-bit elliptic curve cryptography — co-authored by researchers from Google Quantum AI, the Ethereum Foundation's Justin Drake, and Stanford's Dan Boneh — shows Shor's algorithm can break ECDSA with fewer than 500,000 physical qubits and fewer than 70 million Toffoli gates on superconducting hardware. The paper says this "can execute in minutes." We ran the numbers on the stated parameters and estimate roughly 8-9 minutes....

Happy 2026! Overall, the quantum new year arrived more stable, in more than one way. In practice, molecular qubits are now holding coherence long enough to run real-world chemistry simulations. We are now seeing converging national quantum programs springing up across the globe with government, corporate, and university partnerships focused on initiatives to accelerate and communicate quantum technology and its applications. While investments are not yet at historic levels like fiber, railroads, or AI, they are pouring in to back all of this up....

This November, as we gather around virtual tables filled with cranberry sauce and quantum white papers, we pause not to lament the clock’s ticking but to give thanks for the quiet revolutions unfolding in dilution refrigerators and fab ovens around the world. Every breakthrough in coherence, scaling, and error correction was a dish prepared by generations of researchers for whom we can’t express enough gratitude. Let’s eat well, think deeply, and keep building to serve the future. This month especially we’d like to highlight the Quantum Index Report 2025 from the MIT Sloan Management School....

This Halloween season we got a treat with concrete proof that quantum computers are not tricking us via an experiment using Einstein’s spooky action at a distance paradox. Researchers have now built a functional "quantum lie detector" that confirms these machines operate through genuine quantum mechanics—not classical mimicry. Using Einstein’s Spooky Action Paradox to Confirm Quantum Operation Researchers have developed a quantum lie detector that confirms large-scale quantum systems are not simulating classical behavior but genuinely exploiting entanglement....

The highlight this month is that the market is not just betting on quantum—it is pouring billions into it. Capital is flowing like water, governments moved from observation to action, and the race for quantum supremacy became a national infrastructure priority. We are not yet at the stage where your cab driver knows about it, but you would be justified in thinking we may be entering a bubble, but it is completely unclear how much value quantum will provide! Massive Capital Infusion, Market Valuation Surge, and Government Strategic Interest PsiQuantum’s $1B Series E and $7B valuation mark...

The highlight of this month is Fujitsu's official announcement of their 10,000-qubit quantum computer project, targeting completion by 2030. This isn't just another research milestone—it's a fully funded, government-backed industrial project that signals quantum computing's transition from laboratory curiosity to strategic national infrastructure. Chiplet Architectures Could Lead the Scaling Revolution It is not just about qubit counts—it is about architecture. Rigetti's 36-qubit Cepheus-1-36Q system represents the industry's first practical success with chiplet-based quantum computing....

Quantum progress continues apace. From unconditional exponential speedups to 1,000x error reductions, the quantum computing industry is no longer crawling—it's sprinting toward cryptographic relevance with regular, sustained advances that is bringing quantum dominance from "soon" to "imminent." The highlight of this month is the logical-level magic state distillation by researchers working with Quantinuum. A magic state is a quantum state that can be reliably used for fully general quantum computation, and this report may achieve the first universal, fully fault-tolerant quantum gate set...

Just days after our May newsletter, the quantum threat timeline compressed dramatically. Craig Gidney dropped a bombshell update showing that factoring 2048-bit RSA might require less than 1 million qubits, not the 20 million he previously thought. That's a 20x improvement, putting us squarely on track with our doom clock projections made earlier in the year. As New Scientist reports, this is not just an incremental improvement—--it is a fundamental leap that brings the quantum threat from "someday" to "soon", which we have been saying for some time now! Physical Qubit Requirements Continue...

Quantum Advantage Emerges: Real-World Applications The belle of the ball this month has been D-Wave’s quantum supremacy announcement from March being backed up with a paper published in Science with Oak Ridge National Labs on April 30th. While claims of “quantum supremacy” have a murky history, this one looks legitimate with convincing evidence that their quantum computer performs magnetic materials simulation faster than regular computers....

Stop the Clock! TL;DR: We launched post-quantum Quip smart accounts on Base! More chains are coming soon. You can move to the next section if you’re here for other news. Today we get to kick off with some very happy news, marking a new milestone in quantum-resistance. You can now send and receive tokens as well as NFTs in complete safety from quantum attackers, all while earning your share of the future QUIP supply for getting protected early....

For many years, academics, tech founders, and Fortune 500 CEOs have often repeated that useful quantum computers are ten to twenty years away. But those tunes are changing and the people who should be most in-the-know are universally adjusting their timelines: * Bill Gates - "There's a possibility quantum computing will become useful in 3-5 years." (Video Clip) * Sundar Pichai, Google CEO - "In a 5-10 year timeframe, I think you will start [to see] practically useful quantum computers....

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